NOVEMBER
By mid-November of last season, I think I had finally concluded that a regime change was the best thing for the Texans. Barrett and I have not hidden our love for Gary Kubiak and our respect for Rick Smith. However, as significant mistakes repeated themselves and as the 2010 season began to unhinge, I lost confidence in their ability to lead this team well. By late December, it seemed likely that a head coaching search may happen and a new general manager may be on the horizon as well. I am not privy to any inside information but I think Gary Kubiak’s job and possibly Rick Smith’s job was saved due to the uncertainty of the collective bargaining situation. Instead, the organization focused on upgrading the defensive coordinator.
While I think Frank Bush was somewhat of a scapegoat, there is no denying that he had not earned another season as defensive coordinator. Another thing that was clear was that Coach Kubiak was not qualified to manage personnel and coaching decisions on the defensive side of the ball. He hired two defensive coaches and both had failed miserably. In addition, at no point during the struggles did Coach Kubiak sound as if he clearly and accurately assessed the problems on that side of the ball nor had the ability to aid the defense in solving the problems. That deficiency and the resulting lack of success in 2010 were certainly cause for his removal. Bob McNair decided to retain Kubiak, as we know, and remedy those defencies by hiring a defensive coach with extensive experience and an impressive resume’.
The "Fix It Guy"
I was quickly encouraged that the addition of Wade Phillips was sufficient reason for optimism heading into 2011. Given the level of uncertainty heading into 2011 and the likelihood that organizational stability may play a key role in the forthcoming season, I was able to rally hope and excitement for the move quickly. From my perspective, it was a good start to the off-season. What was of further encouragement were the comments from both Gary Kubiak, Rick Smith, and Bob McNair that they recognized a need to change the approach. First of all, it was clear that Wade would have near autonomous say regarding the defensive personnel. Therefore, we won’t be seeing the Jesse Nadings and Tim Bulmans of the world, or other Colorado State graduates peppering the roster (not on defense, at least). That was a good thing, I thought.
More than that, though, was an acknowledgement that free agency and the draft would be approacheddifferently. Also, they each stressed a sense of urgency that I have not heard from them before. As a matter of a fact, it sounded like they were determined to be active in free agency, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. So, as any obsessed and excitable fan, I searched for a list of free agents: WOW! This season has the deepest and most talented group of free agents (particularly on defense) in at least five years. Good to elite cornerbacks, playmaking safeties, hybrid DE/OLBs as far as the eye can see are on the list of probable free agents. Then reality sits in. The Texans are finally willing to spend money in free agency and their needs fit perfectly with the available talent, but… LOCKOUT!
FEBRUARY
Well into February, it is clear that the owners and players have no intention on reaching an agreement on a new CBA anytime in the next few months. So, this much anticipated free agent period and Texan reformation is going to be postponed indefinitely. Furthermore, many of these free agents have acrewed four or five years of NFL service and there is some uncertainty whether they will become unrestricted free agents when a CBA is finally reached. So, perhaps the list will be much smaller that I was expecting. Furthermore, as February drew to a close, some of the more forward-thinking franchises began offering restricted free agent tenders to many of their players with the 4-5 years of service, anticipating this possibility. Meanwhile, the Texans front office was silent. So, while other teams prepared for an opportunity to keep their relatively young talent at a discount, guys like Owen Daniels, Zac Diles, Mark Anderson, Rashad Butler, Jacoby Jones, Mike Briesel were twisting in the wind. This is not good, I thought. Oh, and as the reality set in that the lockout looks to extend to, and beyond, the NFL draft, it meant that the NFL draft would happen before free agency. Uh oh!
While it appeared that the Texans were finally willing to address some of their needs via free agency and a market was there to do so, but a CBA standstill could prevent it. If the draft takes place before free agency, I realize that the Texans would immediately slip into their typical off-season pattern as easily as putting on an old pair of slippers. The Texans would simply draft for need again with the intention of plugging and playing their early round picks, just like they did with Mario and Demeco, Okoye, Duane Brown, Brian Cushing, and Kareem Jackson. The Texans have not drafted particularly poorly but this philosophy of drafting players at positions of weakness intending to start them immediately cost the Texans opportunities to acquire players like Patrick Willis, Darrell Revis, Dez Bryant, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Michael Oher, Chris Johnson, and others. I don’t like to criticize a team in retrospect for missing on the best player of a given draft. However, the Texans have been so clearly determined to draft a particular position in the early rounds of each draft that they have eliminated the opportunity of drafting great players as a result.
As March neared, I was thoroughly deflated. The Texans had not re-signed any of their players, the NFL was heading towards an extended lockout, and the front office was showing no signs of life.
Eugene Wilson
And then…. The Texans released Eugene Wilson. Wilson was a disaster last season and greatly contributed to the failure of the young secondary. Then, I was encouraged that the Texans declined to franchise tag Owen Daniels as the deadline came and past. I love Owen Daniels and he is valuable to the team. However, the fact that the Texans were reserving their resources further encouraged me that they were planning to invest heavily on the ailing defense.
MARCH
The Texans announced that they extended tenders to seven players, including Owen Daniels, Rashad Butler, Jacoby Jones, Mark Anderson, Mike Briesel, Matt Leinart and an Arian Foster. They also declined to tender Bernard Pollard, Zac Diles, Kasey Studdard, and Tim Bulman. As I wrote in a recent article, this indicated a number of things. First of all, it showed that the front office was paying attention and preparing for contingencies. Second, it showed what players they value, and therefore, where their focus in the draft and free agency will be. Shortly after these announcements, the Texans signed Shaun Cody, Derrick Ward, and Owen Daniels to new deals. I really like the Ward signing.
Derrick Ward
Even though Arian Foster was awesome last season and Ben Tate (last season’s 2nd round pick) is healthy, the Texans signed a highly productive veteran backup RB instead of hoping the inexperienced player works out and/or their starter remains healthy next season. Commiting to that kind of quality depth (other than at TE) is a new approach. Also, the Texans signed Owen Daniels to a 4 year deal worth between $5-$6 million per year. Apparently, the signing bonus was about $6 million. This contract is worth about 1/2 of the contract that Owen Daniels wanted after his 2009 season. The Texans have successfully played hardball with one of its stars. Shaun Cody is solid. He also can play the run well and will, at least, be an adequate NT. At best, he will provide excellent depth for a starting NT that is not yet on the roster or one that has yet to prove himself (Earl Mitchell).
All of this activity occurred hours before the lockout was expected to begin. I called Barrett with the news and also with a thought: Why, all of a sudden, is Bob McNair willing to spend close to $10 million in signing bonuses on players if a lockout is inevitable? Perhaps McNair has reason to believe a CBA is close to happening? Literally a few moments later, it was reported that a 24 hour extension had been agreed upon. Now, we sit in the midst of a one week extension with both parties clearly encouraged by the progress made. If a CBA is reached in the next two weeks, free agency will occur prior to the draft. The Texans will be in position to be active in free agency and enter the NFL draft, picking relatively high in each round, with some freedom to select the best player available.
I have seen and heard many fans frustrated that the Texans did not pursue available players like Shaun Rogers, Bob Sanders, Oshiomogho Atogwe.
Oj Atogwe
These players were available because they were cut from existing contracts. I am thrilled the Texans avoided bidding on these players for a number of reasons. First, all three players have had significant injury issues the past few years. Second, all three players (with the possible exception of Atogwe) are past their prime. Primarily, though, the issue is that the Texans would be one of 32 NFL teams pursuing five or six free agents. There has been no free agency and no draft. So, 32 NFL franchises are looking at their rosters, which are full of needs, and have a pool of six players to address these needs with. That is not what I would consider a buyer’s market. If I am correct, the Texans have a plan that includes being quite active during free agency. I would much rather the Texans wait for the market to flood with over 200 free agents and allow them to bid and visit with many of them. Simple supply and demand would dictate the Texans will be in a much better position when that happens.
Fortunately, it may happen in as little as one week. I’ll be the first to say it: this has the makings of a championship off-season for the Texans. They have been dead on point, so far… We just need that last domino to fall. If the CBA is reached by mid-March, I think Texan fans will be truly stunned by the team this organization is going to put together this year.
Here is an abbreviated but updated list of likely free agents:
Ike Taylor
CBs: Nnambi Asomugha, Johnathan Joseph, Brandon Carr, Brent Grimes, Ike Taylor, Antonio Cromartie, Richard Marshall, Josh Wilson, Chris Carr, Carlos Rogers, Eric Wright, Kelly Jennings, Chris Houston, Fabian Washington, Drayton Florence, among others… (all those listed are 30yrs old or under)
Safety: Eric Weddle, Dawan Landry, Quintin Mikell, Daniel Manning, Michael Huff, Gerald Sensabaugh, Donte Whitner, Dashon Gholdson, Roman Harper, Atari Bigby, Melvin Bullitt, Abram Elam, among othres (everyon listed is 30 years old or under)
Well, there are two of our high need positions. You can see how large the pool of talent is. If you want a complete list, check out Walterfootball (they keep it regularly updated)
